CRJ 553: Module 4 Critical Thinking Essay & Annotated Bibliography Reflective Writing
Module 4 Final Project Planning Milestone 1
In this 4 – 6 page essay, address each of the following prompts:
Explain why have we not seen another major WMD attack since 9/11.
Explore the challenges violent extremist groups can encounter when pursuing, acquiring or attempting to use WMDs in a terrorist attack.
Discuss how a framework for analyzing threats can help deter future attacks.
Ideally, you will want to evaluate this question in terms of your own community in preparation for the final essay of the course.
In addition, your essay must identify at least three citations of peer-reviewed articles and include an annotated bibliography on one of these articles focused on the reflective style. The reflective style is focused on analyzing the findings of the article. After describing the article (researcher, research, results),
Describe your reaction to the article.
Explore how this paper changed your mind about your topic.
Address how it makes you reconsider previous research.
Your page count does not include the annotated bibliography.
Reflecting & Looking Ahead: Remember that in Module 2 you focused on the descriptive style for your annotated bibliography and in Module 3 you explored the analytical style. The reflective style allows us to explore both of those in the same style and reflect on what we can take away from the source. You will use your annotated bibliography in the final assignment of this course when you design your response to a WMD incident.
In this 4 – 6 page essay, address each of the following prompts:
Explain why have we not seen another major WMD attack since 9/11.
Explore the challenges violent extremist groups can encounter when pursuing, acquiring or attempting to use WMDs in a terrorist attack.
Discuss how a framework for analyzing threats can help deter future attacks.
Ideally, you will want to evaluate this question in terms of your own community in preparation for the final essay of the course.
In addition, your essay must identify at least three citations of peer-reviewed articles and include an annotated bibliography on one of these articles focused on the reflective style. The reflective style is focused on analyzing the findings of the article. After describing the article (researcher, research, results),
Describe your reaction to the article.
Explore how this paper changed your mind about your topic.
Address how it makes you reconsider previous research.
Your page count does not include the annotated bibliography.
Reflecting & Looking Ahead: Remember that in Module 2 you focused on the descriptive style for your annotated bibliography and in Module 3 you explored the analytical style. The reflective style allows us to explore both of those in the same style and reflect on what we can take away from the source. You will use your annotated bibliography in the final assignment of this course when you design your response to a WMD incident.
For this learning module, please study the following materials. You will need to understand the concepts presented here to complete the assignments.
Required Reading
PUBLICATION: Ackerman, Gary & Jacome, Michelle. 15 May 2018. WMD Terrorism: The Once and Future ThreatLinks to an external site.. PRISM: National Defense University – Journal of Complex Operations. Vol. 7, no. 3. Pp. 22 – 34.
PUBLICATION: Koblenz, Gregory. 09 August 2011. Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. pp. 501 – 520. (Requires ASU Librarylogin to access)
GOVERNMENT REPORT: Coats, Dan. Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence CommunityLinks to an external site.. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Pp. 8 – 13.
Module 4 Content
Introduction
In this module you will explore historic examples of when WMDs were pursued and used by violent extremist groups.
You will also explore why we have not seen any major WMD attack since 9/11. While this may be a comfort to learn, the reality is there are a lot of variables that must be considered when evaluating the threat WMDs pose to targets of violent extremists. A group that is both willing and able to remain dedicated to the effort over the long term could be successful. (Cook, 2017). More importantly, technological advancements since 9/11 have the ability to dramatically shift the terrorism threat picture. Four key areas of concern include:
Information technology
Biotechnology
Nanotechnology
Advanced energy sources
The first chart captures CBRNE incidents by non-state actors from 1990 – 2016. The second chart depicts CBRN incidents by non-state actors, which include violent extremist groups, from 2012 – 2016. Review the chart to get a sense of which types of violent extremist groups have pursued WMD technology and weaponry.
The Threats of WMDs
Nuclear
The acquisition of a nuclear weapon or materials would likely come from a preexisting arsenal, which would indicate Russia or Pakistan.
Radiological
Weaponizing radiological material is far less challenging than nuclear materials, making it a more attractive target to violent extremist groups. Radiological weapons can also be deployed using a range of delivery systems. This, in combination with the psychological impact of such an attack, makes this an attractive type of weapon for groups.
Chemical
Chemical weapons, as you have learned, can be acquired through theft or state sponsorship. They can be found in stockpiles in Syria, Iraq, Libya and North Korea.
Biological
These types of attacks can be catastrophic to a target population, but the challenges of acquiring the living weapons has contributed to the low number of events.
(Ackerman & Jacome, 2018)
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant & WMDs
One of the few exceptions of terrorist groups using WMDs is the Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) using chemical weapons in Syria and Iraq, which were deployed against civilians.
ISIS was able to acquire these weapons from pre-existing stockpiles of chemical weapons and through the use of industrial materials, specifically chlorine gas, that was used on a civilian population.
Watch Islamic States Toxic Chlorine Gas Bombs accessed via YouTube by the BBC News [2:45] Islamic State’s toxic “chlorine gas” bombs – BBC NewsLinks to an external site.
ISIS is also suspected of using mustard gas against US troops in Iraq in 2015.
ISIS allegedly abandoned its chemical weapons production in 2017 following the loss of its hold in Mosul, Iraq. (Strack, 2017).
Watch U.S. Investigating ISIS Use of Chemical Weapons accessed via YouTube by CNN [2:16]. U.S. investigating ISIS’ use of chemical weaponsLinks to an external site.
The US Intelligence Community assessed in 2019 that ISIS had used chemical weapons in the previous two years. (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2019)
A look at the graphic below captures the concern surrounding ISIS desire to acquire WMDs of any kind.
Explanations for Lack of WMD Attacks
You will learn in this module that WMDs have been used in previous attacks, specifically in Iraq, Syria, Japan and even in the United States. However, experts generally agree that these are often the exception rather than that rule. Still, given the catastrophic nature of WMDs in psychological and economic terms, the appeal of their use could make them an attractive pursuit for some violent extremist groups.
Your textbook reviews expert arguments on why we have not seen any significant WMD attacks since 9/11 by violent extremist groups in a terrorist attack. These include:
WMD weapon material tend to be relatively well protected;
terrorists are not capable of carrying out a major attack;
groups have yet to develop the capacity, but are working on it considerably without detection; or
US and international efforts to keep groups from being able to carry out a successful attack has vebene effective in interdicting all potential attacks.
Future Threat Predictions
In 2019, the US Intelligence Community expected the overall threat from WMDs to continue to grow, placing a specific emphasis on the threat posed by chemical warfare. (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2019)
Optional Reading
Asal, Victor, Ackerman, Gary, & Rethemeyer, Karl. 2012. Connections Can Be Toxic: Terrorist Organizational Factors and the Pursuit of CBRN WeaponsLinks to an external site.. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. 35:3, 231.
Graham, B. & Talent, J. 2010. Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card: An Assessment of the US Governments Response in Protecting the United States from Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and TerrorismLinks to an external site.. Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation.
Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf. 25 January 2010. Al-Qaedas Pursuit of Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Authoritative TimelinLinks to an external site.e. Foreign Policy.
Tinsley, Herbert., Quigley, Jillian., Binder, Markus. & Samuelsen, Lauren. (2017). IS Chemical and Biological Weapons Behavioral Profile. College Park, MD. START.
Tucker, Jonathan. (2012) Chemical Terrorism: Assessing Threats and ResponsesLinks to an external site.. Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies. Pp. 117 – 133.
United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism. Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear terrorismLinks to an external site..
